Canola, experimental regional estimates using new data sources and methods, 2019-20 financial year

Using new data sources and methods to produce more timely and detailed agricultural statistics

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is partnering with industry and other stakeholders to co-design methods to produce agricultural statistics using new data sources.

Traditionally, agriculture area and production statistics are produced by the ABS through an annual agricultural survey or the five yearly agricultural census which collects information directly from farm businesses.

Agriculture value of production information is produced through a variety of methods, including annual survey collections.

These experimental canola estimates demonstrate that non-survey data sources can produce accurate statistics at a level of regional detail normally only available every five years from the Agricultural Census. These experimental canola estimates are an extension of previous experimental work undertaken for producing sugarcane statistics.

The ABS plan to refine this experimental approach to producing canola statistics, with the aim of adopting this methodology to produce official canola statistics. This will reduce the reporting burden for farmers, and industry, through the eventual removal of canola questions from the suite of ABS agricultural surveys.

Work is underway to extend similar approaches to use administrative data for other agricultural statistics.

If you are interested in being part of the conversation about modernising the production of official agricultural statistics, please get in touch with us via email: agriculture.statistics@abs.gov.au

Canola, experimental statistics

The 2019-20 experimental estimates of canola production, local value, area grown and business numbers are produced by combining administrative data from the Grains Levy Payer Register with satellite derived crop mapping from Digital Agriculture Services.

To assist users in understanding the accuracy of the experimental estimates, comparison has been made with the official canola statistics for 2019-20, produced from the ABS agricultural survey and Value of Agricultural Commodities Produced collection. This comparison includes the 95% confidence interval for the official ABS agricultural commodity estimates. For more information about sampling errors see Agricultural Commodities, Australia - Methodology section and Value of Agricultural Commodities Produced – Methodology section.

Comparison between the experimental canola estimates and the official ABS agricultural commodity estimates is made at the lowest common regional output level - Statistical Area Level 4 (SA4).

Canola produced

In 2019-20:

2,136 thousand tonnes of canola were produced in Australia
Western Australia was the largest canola producing state with 48% of Australian production (1,022 thousand tonnes)

Canola production - States and territories, 2019-20
State	ABS agricultural commodity estimate (tonnes)	95% confidence interval (tonnes) (low)	95% confidence interval (tonnes) (high)	Experimental estimate (tonnes)
New South Wales	206,199	181,818	230,581	208,991
Victoria	731,091	619,952	842,230	623,226
Queensland	938	933	944	56
South Australia	241,479	195,239	287,719	279,201
Western Australia	1,117,074	931,386	1,302,761	1,021,907
Tasmania	1,748	1,597	1,900	2,811

Canola production - States and territories, 2019-20

["State","ABS agricultural commodity estimate","95% confidence interval","Experimental estimate"]

[["New South Wales","Victoria","Queensland","South Australia","Western Australia","Tasmania"],[[206199],[731091],[938],[241479],[1117074],[1748]],[[181818,230581],[619952,842230],[933,944],[195239,287719],[931386,1302761],[1597,1900]],[[208991],[623226],[56],[279201],[1021907],[2811]]]

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The experimental canola production estimates are within the 95% confidence interval of the ABS agricultural commodity estimates for the four major canola producing states.

Canola production - Top 10 Experimental estimates, Statistical Area 4 Regions, 2019-20
Statistical Area 4(a)	ABS agricultural commodity estimate (tonnes)	95% confidence interval (tonnes) (low)	95% confidence interval (tonnes) (high)	Experimental estimate (tonnes)
Western Australia - Wheat Belt (WA)	696,718	546,208	847,227	657,520
Western Australia - Outback (South) (WA)	414,622	292,847	536,396	357,298
North West (Vic.)	367,794	287,030	448,558	325,321
South Australia - Outback (SA)	99,910	69,786	130,034	135,733
Riverina (NSW)	89,543	71,848	107,238	82,853
South Australia - South East (SA)	72,365	54,621	90,109	78,319
Shepparton (Vic.)	64,684	50,749	78,619	70,672
Warrnambool and South West (Vic.)	109,310	40,432	178,189	70,248
Barossa - Yorke - Mid North (SA)	69,204	40,289	98,118	64,245
Ballarat (Vic.)	75,699	42,714	108,685	63,074

Canola production - Top 10 Experimental estimates, Statistical Area 4 Regions, 2019-20

["Statistical Area 4(a)","ABS agricultural commodity estimate","95% confidence interval","Experimental estimate"]

[["Western Australia - Wheat Belt (WA)","Western Australia - Outback (South) (WA)","North West (Vic.)","South Australia - Outback (SA)","Riverina (NSW)","South Australia - South East (SA)","Shepparton (Vic.)","Warrnambool and South West (Vic.)","Barossa - Yorke - Mid North (SA)","Ballarat (Vic.)"],[[696718],[414622],[367794],[99910],[89543],[72365],[64684],[109310],[69204],[75699]],[[546208,847227],[292847,536396],[287030,448558],[69786,130034],[71848,107238],[54621,90109],[50749,78619],[40432,178189],[40289,98118],[42714,108685]],[[657520],[357298],[325321],[135733],[82853],[78319],[70672],[70248],[64245],[63074]]]

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Australian Statistical Geography Standard 2016

For the 10 largest producing Statistical Area 4 (SA4) regions, the experimental estimates for canola production are all within the 95% confidence interval of the ABS agricultural commodity estimates, except for 'South Australia - Outback'.

Canola production - Top 10 Experimental estimates, Statistical Area 2 Regions, 2019-20
Statistical Area 2(a)	Experimental estimate (tonnes)
Esperance Region (WA)	266,598
Eyre Peninsula (SA)	120,438
Kojonup (WA)	118,579
Ararat Region (Vic.)	104,775
Gnowangerup (WA)	92,479
Moora (WA)	63,439
Wagin (WA)	53,177
Morawa (WA)	47,579
Dowerin (WA)	46,032
Plantagenet (WA)	45,583

Canola production - Top 10 Experimental estimates, Statistical Area 2 Regions, 2019-20

["Statistical Area 2(a)","Experimental estimate"]

[["Esperance Region (WA)","Eyre Peninsula (SA)","Kojonup (WA)","Ararat Region (Vic.)","Gnowangerup (WA)","Moora (WA)","Wagin (WA)","Morawa (WA)","Dowerin (WA)","Plantagenet (WA)"],[[266598],[120438],[118579],[104775],[92479],[63439],[53177],[47579],[46032],[45583]]]

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Australian Statistical Geography Standard 2016

The Esperance Region is the largest canola producing Statistical Area 2 (SA2) region in Western Australia and Australia, highlighting the importance of canola to the Esperance region. The regional detail provided by data at the SA2 level is possible because levy and crop mapping data provide coverage of all businesses producing and selling canola across Australia. Currently this level of geographic detail is only provided every 5 years when data is collected through the Agricultural Census.

Annual data at this level will support better biosecurity risk assessment as well as an improved understanding of the impact of the changing climate and natural disasters on canola.

Area of canola grown

In 2019-20, 2,141 thousand hectares of canola were grown in Australia. Western Australia had the largest area of land growing canola with 1.1 million hectares.

Canola area grown - States and territories, 2019-20
State	ABS agricultural commodity estimate (hectares)	95% confidence interval (hectares) (low)	95% confidence interval (hectares) (high)	Experimental estimate (hectares)
New South Wales	327,076	297,046	357,106	428,523
Victoria	404,643	352,450	456,837	437,772
Queensland	860	855	866	134
South Australia	152,627	125,389	179,865	203,522
Western Australia	1,148,202	936,094	1,360,310	1,070,225
Tasmania	648	441	856	903

Canola area grown - States and territories, 2019-20

["State","ABS agricultural commodity estimate","95% confidence interval","Experimental estimate"]

[["New South Wales","Victoria","Queensland","South Australia","Western Australia","Tasmania"],[[327076],[404643],[860],[152627],[1148202],[648]],[[297046,357106],[352450,456837],[855,866],[125389,179865],[936094,1360310],[441,856]],[[428523],[437772],[134],[203522],[1070225],[903]]]

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[{"value":"0","axis_id":"0","axis_title":"hectares","axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"(ha)","table_units":"(hectares)","axis_min":null,"axis_max":null,"tick_interval":null,"precision":"-1","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

The experimental estimates for area of canola grown are within the 95% confidence interval of the ABS agricultural commodity estimates in Victoria and Western Australia, the two largest canola producing states.

Canola area grown - Top 10 Experimental estimates, Statistical Area 4 Regions, 2019-20
Statistical Area 4(a)	ABS agricultural commodity estimate (hectares)	95% confidence interval (hectares) (low)	95% confidence interval (hectares) (high)	Experimental estimate (hectares)
Western Australia - Wheat Belt (WA)	684,434	499,207	869,660	688,494
Western Australia - Outback (South) (WA)	458,835	339,363	578,307	374,084
North West (Vic.)	212,803	168,963	256,643	231,641
Riverina (NSW)	126,585	106,098	147,073	175,521
Murray (NSW)	76,208	67,798	84,618	113,756
Central West (Vic.)	64,437	44,297	84,577	86,346
South Australia - Outback (SA)	63,672	49,396	77,948	85,044
South Australia - South East (SA)	41,691	30,133	53,250	63,735
Shepparton (Vic.)	52,023	39,926	64,120	54,793
Barossa - Yorke - Mid North (SA)	47,264	28,436	66,092	54,367

Canola area grown - Top 10 Experimental estimates, Statistical Area 4 Regions, 2019-20

["Statistical Area 4(a)","ABS agricultural commodity estimate","95% confidence interval","Experimental estimate"]

[["Western Australia - Wheat Belt (WA)","Western Australia - Outback (South) (WA)","North West (Vic.)","Riverina (NSW)","Murray (NSW)","Central West (Vic.)","South Australia - Outback (SA)","South Australia - South East (SA)","Shepparton (Vic.)","Barossa - Yorke - Mid North (SA)"],[[684434],[458835],[212803],[126585],[76208],[64437],[63672],[41691],[52023],[47264]],[[499207,869660],[339363,578307],[168963,256643],[106098,147073],[67798,84618],[44297,84577],[49396,77948],[30133,53250],[39926,64120],[28436,66092]],[[688494],[374084],[231641],[175521],[113756],[86346],[85044],[63735],[54793],[54367]]]

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[{"value":"0","axis_id":"0","axis_title":"hectares","axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"(ha)","table_units":"(hectares)","axis_min":null,"axis_max":null,"tick_interval":null,"precision":"-1","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

Australian Statistical Geography Standard 2016

For canola area grown, the experimental estimates fall outside the 95% confidence interval of the ABS agricultural commodity estimates in 5 of the 10 largest canola growing SA4s.

Further investigation is required to better understand the reason the experimental estimates and official area statistics do not show greater alignment at the SA4 level. The crop identification techniques used in converting satellite imagery to crop area estimates are continuously improving however there is regional variation in the accuracy of these estimates. Large broadacre crop businesses often extend across multiple regions and understanding the exact nature of this from the business addresses available in both ABS survey data and the Levy Payer Register data, is difficult.

Value of canola produced

The farm gate value (local value) of canola from the 2019-20 harvest in Australia was $1,207 million.

Canola value - Top 10 Experimental estimates, Statistical Area 4 Regions, 2019-20
Statistical Area 4(a)	ABS agricultural commodity estimate ($m)	95% confidence interval ($m) (low)	95% confidence interval ($m) (high)	Experimental estimate ($m)
Western Australia - Wheat Belt (WA)	407.7	319.6	495.7	369.0
Western Australia - Outback (South) (WA)	242.6	171.4	313.9	190.1
North West (Vic.)	210.3	164.1	256.5	187.5
South Australia - Outback (SA)	54.0	37.7	70.3	78.8
Riverina (NSW)	50.6	40.6	60.6	48.5
South Australia - South East (SA)	39.1	29.5	48.7	44.1
Warrnambool and South West (Vic.)	62.5	23.1	101.9	41.8
Shepparton (Vic.)	37.0	29.0	45.0	40.3
Ballarat (Vic.)	43.3	24.4	62.1	37.1
Barossa - Yorke - Mid North (SA)	37.4	21.8	53.0	35.7

Canola value - Top 10 Experimental estimates, Statistical Area 4 Regions, 2019-20

["Statistical Area 4(a)","ABS agricultural commodity estimate","95% confidence interval","Experimental estimate"]

[["Western Australia - Wheat Belt (WA)","Western Australia - Outback (South) (WA)","North West (Vic.)","South Australia - Outback (SA)","Riverina (NSW)","South Australia - South East (SA)","Warrnambool and South West (Vic.)","Shepparton (Vic.)","Ballarat (Vic.)","Barossa - Yorke - Mid North (SA)"],[[407.69999999999999],[242.59999999999999],[210.30000000000001],[54],[50.600000000000001],[39.100000000000001],[62.5],[37],[43.299999999999997],[37.399999999999999]],[[319.60000000000002,495.69999999999999],[171.40000000000001,313.89999999999998],[164.09999999999999,256.5],[37.700000000000003,70.299999999999997],[40.600000000000001,60.600000000000001],[29.5,48.700000000000003],[23.100000000000001,101.90000000000001],[29,45],[24.399999999999999,62.100000000000001],[21.800000000000001,53]],[[369],[190.09999999999999],[187.5],[78.799999999999997],[48.5],[44.100000000000001],[41.799999999999997],[40.299999999999997],[37.100000000000001],[35.700000000000003]]]

[]

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Australian Statistical Geography Standard 2016

For the 10 SA4s with the highest value of canola, the experimental estimates are all within the 95% confidence interval of the ABS agricultural commodity estimates, except for 'South Australia - Outback'. The value estimates reflect both variations in unit price for canola and the volume of production. The variability in the data presented here is largely attributed to the small differences in production.

Canola value - Top 10 Experimental estimates, Statistical Area 2 Regions, 2019-20
Statistical Area 2(a)	Experimental estimate ($m)
Esperance Region (WA)	145.2
Eyre Peninsula (SA)	70.4
Kojonup (WA)	67.7
Ararat Region Vic.)	61.9
Gnowangerup (WA)	52.7
Moora (WA)	35.1
Wagin (WA)	30.7
Plantagenet (WA)	25.1
Dowerin (WA)	24.2
Buloke (Vic.)	23.6

Canola value - Top 10 Experimental estimates, Statistical Area 2 Regions, 2019-20

["Statistical Area 2(a)","Experimental estimate"]

[["Esperance Region (WA)","Eyre Peninsula (SA)","Kojonup (WA)","Ararat Region Vic.)","Gnowangerup (WA)","Moora (WA)","Wagin (WA)","Plantagenet (WA)","Dowerin (WA)","Buloke (Vic.)"],[[145.19999999999999],[70.400000000000006],[67.700000000000003],[61.899999999999999],[52.700000000000003],[35.100000000000001],[30.699999999999999],[25.100000000000001],[24.199999999999999],[23.600000000000001]]]

[]

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[{"value":"0","axis_id":"0","axis_title":"$m","axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"($m)","table_units":"($m)","axis_min":null,"axis_max":null,"tick_interval":null,"precision":"-1","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

Australian Statistical Geography Standard 2016

The graph of canola value by SA2 in Australia highlights the additional regional detail that the experimental statistics provide by using the Levy Payer Register data together with the crop mapping. Annual value statistics at this level of regional detail provide insights into the economic contribution of different agricultural commodities to regional communities around Australia.

Number of canola businesses

There were 6,180 businesses producing canola in Australia for the 2019-20 harvest.

Canola number of businesses(a) - Top 10 Experimental estimates, Statistical Area 4 Regions, 2019-20
Statistical Area 4(a)	ABS agricultural commodity estimate (Number of businesses)	95% confidence interval (Number of businesses) (low)	95% confidence interval (Number of businesses) (high)	Experimental estimate (Number of businesses)
Western Australia - Wheat Belt (WA)	1,303	1,061	1,545	1,500
North West (Vic.)	816	649	983	970
Western Australia - Outback (South) (WA)	607	469	745	495
Riverina (NSW)	409	339	478	445
Murray (NSW)	284	255	314	335
Barossa - Yorke - Mid North (SA)	279	203	354	330
Shepparton (Vic.)	200	120	281	310
South Australia - South East (SA)	234	149	318	305
South Australia - Outback (SA)	223	165	281	285
Ballarat (Vic.)	226	138	313	225

Canola number of businesses(a) - Top 10 Experimental estimates, Statistical Area 4 Regions, 2019-20

["Statistical Area 4(a)","ABS agricultural commodity estimate","95% confidence interval","Experimental estimate"]

[["Western Australia - Wheat Belt (WA)","North West (Vic.)","Western Australia - Outback (South) (WA)","Riverina (NSW)","Murray (NSW)","Barossa - Yorke - Mid North (SA)","Shepparton (Vic.)","South Australia - South East (SA)","South Australia - Outback (SA)","Ballarat (Vic.)"],[[1303],[816],[607],[409],[284],[279],[200],[234],[223],[226]],[[1061,1545],[649,983],[469,745],[339,478],[255,314],[203,354],[120,281],[149,318],[165,281],[138,313]],[[1500],[970],[495],[445],[335],[330],[310],[305],[285],[225]]]

[]

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[{"value":"0","axis_id":"0","axis_title":"Number of businesses","axis_units":"","tooltip_units":"(Number)","table_units":"(Number of businesses)","axis_min":null,"axis_max":null,"tick_interval":null,"precision":"-1","data_unit_prefix":"","data_unit_suffix":"","reverse_axis":false}]

For data privacy reasons, statistics for numbers of businesses have been rounded
Australian Statistical Geography Standard 2016

The experimental estimates for number of businesses producing canola are within the 95% confidence interval of the ABS agricultural commodity estimates for 7 of the 10 SA4s with the highest number of canola businesses.

The experimental estimates have a higher total number of canola growing businesses than the ABS agricultural commodity estimates. This is likely to be due to the different ways that Australian Business Numbers (ABNs), on which the numbers are based, are captured in the two data collections. Agricultural businesses can have complex structures with multiple ABNs and the same businesses can use different ABNs in ABS surveys and in the Levy Payer Register data. In addition ABS agriculture commodity estimates only include businesses with an estimated value of agricultural operations of $40,000 or more per year. The levy data includes all businesses that sold canola which captures the full extent of canola producing businesses.

How these experimental estimates have been created

The 2019-20 experimental estimates for canola have been produced using administrative data sourced from the Grains Levy Payer Register combined with satellite crop mapping of canola from Digital Agriculture Services (DAS).

Data sources

Method

Interactive maps

The latest interactive map will be available within 24 hours of the data publication release.

Interactive map - Experimental estimates for canola production, canola local value, area of canola grown and number of canola businesses, 2019-20

The map is best viewed in full screen and will open a new tab.

How to use

Geographic Areas

Map data

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